Here is some number-crunching for the UK, but it is not intended is a criticism of the UK's NHS. As before, this kind of calculation is only necessary because of Gilead's price-gouging.
And I'd just like to add it's nothing personal. I am sure that John C Martin and the rest of his team are really nice folks if you know them personally. But for the first time in my life I find there is a bunch of people in this world who I wish will rot in hell.
So anyway, here goes...
...I am still trying to get my head around the number of people with Hep-C who are actually getting treated with the new DAAs from Gilead, or who have any chance of getting treated soon through their national health services. We all now know that Gilead are guilty of price-gouging on a global scale.
But what is the scale of the problem in human terms?
I have already posted some number-crunching on this, but I suspect I am still over-estimating the percentages Hep-C victims who are actually getting treated. Since I'm from the UK, let's start again from there.
In June 2015, NHS England announced a special budget of £190 Million for antivirals for Hep-C
www.england.nhs.uk/2015/06/10/patients-hep-c/
At around £50 000 per treatment, this will pay for about 3800 treatments. The web site announces "Thousands more patients to be cured of hepatitis C", which is very positive...
In Scotland, the Scottish NHS are paying Gilead £22 Million for Harvoni.
www.publiccontractsscotland.gov.uk/searc...w.aspx?ID=JUL214258#
This is estimated to treat about 501 people (costing about £44 000 per head):
www.heraldscotland.com/news/13205038.Hun...the_NHS_in_Scotland/
and the headline is "hundreds will benefit as Hepatitis C 'cure' is approved for use on the NHS in Scotland". Since population of Scotland is about 5 Million, and in England it is about 53 Million, this is in fact a one-nil win on spending for the Scottish Team (but only after extra time to do the math). Again, quite positive...
So lets put the two numbers together: 3800 + 500 = 4300 UK citizens likely to get treated in the next year. From the numbers from hepcoalition.org (see my previous post
fixhepc.com/forum/media-news/396-worser-...scandal.html?start=6), the UK has 659 032 infected people.
So the actual rate of treatment in the UK is more like 4300 / 659 032 = 0.65 % of people in the UK with the virus (which is half of my previous estimate for the non-USA "developed" world).
Now it is hard to say exactly how many people in the UK are seriously ill or dying as a result of end-stage liver disease caused by Hep-C. Still, according to some figures from the British Liver Trust, 16 000 people in the UK died from liver disease, of which only about 4 500 (in 2007) were alcohol-related. OK, not all of the rest were due to Hep-C. But the further down the page: "The number of people with HCV-related cirrhosis is expected to more than double to 8,280 by 2015".
www.britishlivertrust.org.uk/about-us/me...about-liver-disease/
So the point this post is to highlight the fact that the UK is currently treating about 4 000 Hep-C patients with life-threatening cirrhosis, while the number of new patients arriving at this level of severity is over 8 000 per year... Do the remaining math for yourself!
Conclusion #1. Despite best efforts, the UK is going no-where fast on fixing Hepatitis C.
Conclusion #2. In the UK, only people who are almost dying of Hep-C are getting treatment.
Conclusion #3. In terms of people: 659 032 - 4 300 = 655 000 (approx). The real UK headline should be: over half a Million people in the UK are NOT getting treated for hepatitis C thanks to Gilead price gouging.
Conclusion #5. If you are F0, F1, or F2, and your doctor tells you to wait, forget it. At current prices and current treatment rates, the queue in front of you is getting longer. As far as getting treatment through the NHS is concerned, you are "F-ed".
Conclusion #6. If you have Hepatitis C, and if you can afford it, don't wait! Get onto fixhepc.com now and get yourself treated now!