TOPIC: Harvoni - decline of sales in U.S.?!

Hi Everybody,

in the latest press release from Gilead (for the first quarter of 2016), available at investors.gilead.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=69964&p=irol-earnings, there is a strange information, that by compare with the first quarter from 2015, the sales for Harvoni declined in US, while Sovaldi sales increased slightly, while in Europe Sovaldi sales decreased. Looking at the numbers, the drop in sales for antiviral products seems quite big (US -$1 billion)

Are perhaps US people knowing something more about the drug Harvoni than the rest of the world?

Regards,
RHF

Interesting question RHF.
I was just checking their site too - but for info on the new drug to be approved by the FDA on June 28th.

Thankyou for the interesting read
It's hard to say why a drop in sales. I'm certain it won't be to do with the effectiveness or safety of the DAAs we have taken or are taking or for some, about to take. Like Meg I researched the new drug but information is sketchy.

Interesting snippets from this pdf include Gilead stating "....the potential pricing pressure from additional competitive HCV launches or austerity measures in European Countries and Japan....."

I'm still arguing the generic case and recoil at Gileads profit margins as we all do.
Another useful doc ty ROhcv for this
Cheers from Ariel

Maybe it's the generics

I also read that insurance companies continue to limit access to only the sickest patients, and that many are given only 8 weeks of treatment (less than 6 million VL) that is also cutting in to earnings.

The market certainly doesn't seem happy with their performance. Big initial drop after the announcement with no recovery and in fact a slow worsening. This is a company that was at $1.20 in July last year with projections of $1.50 within 12 months.

Gilead's share price is down 32% from a peak of $122.21 on 23 June 2015 pre generics to $83.62 today - post generics.





Current market cap of $112 billion was $164 billion last year, so $52 billion dollars worth of greed has now dissolved before investors eyes.

$50 billion - that's $50,000,000,000 in investor losses, and last year 500,000 patients died of a now curable illness.

Coincidentally it works out at an investor loss of $100,000 per patient death, more or less exactly the same as the cost per cure.

Karma?

I always say to anyone who will listen (and to others as well) that if you own shares in big pharma you are profiting from death and misery

A lot of factors could be contributing to this decline in "blood money".
I would like to think generics is a major one.
m

Realistically generics are only a tiny contributor and represent one component of competition, but logically only a trivial part because if you have to chase generics, then by definition you're not in the (potentially) funded population.

And it's not undercutting pricing from Abbvie that's driving it either - their volumes are down too.

www.bidnessetc.com/58797-gilead-sciences...clining-hcv-scripts/

Effectively bankrupting the major payers like the VA and Medicaid is the primary cause.

Gilead and other pharmaceutical companies are strangling the geese that lay the golden eggs.

It seems to me the only way these prices will ever come down, is to make a legal case that these companies are 'profiteering' or 'price gouging'.

Seems a lot of politicians are either corrupt or cowards.

Another reason for the fall in share prices could be investor fears of pending class actions:

www.chimicles.com/gilead-sovaldi-lawsuit

www.schmidtandclark.com/sovaldi-lawsuit

www.law360.com/articles/603544/pa-transi...h-price-gouging-suit

(see also www.chimicles.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Gilead-FAC.pdf)

I'm sure there were quite a few people with enough money just to self-pay when Harvoni first came out. The "Pamela Andersons" and other financially blessed suffers just bought it.
m

If one looks today at the stock market for Gild, will notice a nice downward trend in the last month (ref. Point 25.04.2016 till today).

Would I be too malicious if I would wish to GILD a nice and safe trip to the bottom (0$)? I mean, I am concerned about their safe journey in a similar way they care about ours.....

Gilead stock is currently trading at $83.04, down from $123.57 a year ago. A lot of things have happened since last June:
As I mentioned earlier, the people who had the money in the US, bought Harvoni as soon as it became available. That market is pretty much gone.
The insurers covered many of the sickest patients early on. There are a lot of really sick people who don't have insurance or have bad insurance coverage, however. Many are still waiting for access to treatment.
The competition has increased, forcing Gilead to negotiate lower prices for insurance companies as well as entire countries. Australia is a good example.
In addition, generics have come into play. I imagine the health tourism business in India is flourishing.
There are other factors I'm sure, but Gilead's share price seems to have stabilized around $80.00. I imagine it will stay there until someone comes up with a much shorter treatment regimen.
m